Monday, February 20, 2012

Iran Is Not Cuba

Iran Is Not Cuba
Gershom Gorenberg's wisdom and insights are worth noting.

He suggests that the panic about Iran is more prevalent here rather than in Israel.
...[T]he people around me in Israeli society don't seem to be panicking. Perhaps it's because no one I know has received official notice that it's time to get gas masks from the Home Front Command—in contrast to the nationwide distribution effort during the period of real tension before the 1991 Gulf War. In fact, the low level of public preparedness suggests two possible conclusions: Netanyahu, Barak, and other top officials could be confident, or terribly overconfident, that Iran and its allies will not retaliate in a serious way. Alternatively, the bellicose public comments and sundry leaks are designed for political purposes, foreign or domestic.
He also argues that the comparisons to 1938 Germany are flawed.
...[T]hinking in 1938 terms risks an even more hard-line implication: Any diplomatic engagement with Iran will lead to Chamberlain-style appeasement. So military action is not just the final option; it's the only option. Despite their emotional appeal, history's extreme examples can close off rather than aid analysis.
And thus I arrive at these tentative conclusions. Prepare for war. Work tirelessly on diplomacy.

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